By: Tina Nguyen
Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images
It’s happening.
For the first time in 42 years, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will meet in the playoffs.
After four straight first-round disappointments, the Leafs are looking to win their first playoff round since the 2003-04 season. The pressure is on with this being one of the best-assembled Leafs rosters we’ve seen in decades.
Since the season began, the Leafs were destined for domination. Toronto held the top spot in the North division for over 100 days and went 35-14-7 in their first full season with head coach Sheldon Keefe, securing their first division title in over 20 years. They also had a winning record against every team, making their .688 winning percentage the best in franchise history.
Impressive for an original six team.
To no surprise, the Leafs core players played a huge part in the team’s success this season. Both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner finished top 5 in league scoring as they became one of the best dynamic duos in the NHL. Not to mention, Matthews’ 41 goals topped the NHL, winning him his first career Rocket Richard. After a slow start, linemates John Tavares and William Nylander finished with 42 and 50 points, respectively.
Overall, the Leafs were incredible at generating offence at 5-on-5, finishing first in their division in xGF% and fourth in the league in shooting percentage.
Everyone knows the Leafs can score. However, the real story of this season was Toronto’s substantial defensive improvement. After finishing 28th last season in goals-against, they were able to jump up into the top ten.
An area of concern for the Leafs was their special teams. Despite having the best powerplay percentage at the start of the year, an abysmal 6 for 76 run caused the Leafs to fall to 16th to end their year. Their penalty kill was not much better, finishing as one of the top-ten worst units in the league.
Next, their goaltending. After starting-goalie Frederick Andersen’s injury, Jack Campbell stepped in and went on a historical 11-0 run, finishing the year with a 17-2-2 record. He has played his way into a starting position for the upcoming series.
Now, a brief summary of the Montreal Canadiens season. Despite looking like a “juggernaut” in the early stages of the season, the Habs quickly floundered following a coaching change and brutal schedule. Furthermore, they suffered a handful of key injuries with the likes of Brendan Gallagher, Shea Weber, Carey Price, Tomas Tatar, Joel Armia, and Paul Byron being out for extended periods of time. However, they will be heading into game one with a healthy lineup.
For the first half of the season, the Canadiens were second in the NHL in goal share (59.58 %), projected goal share (56.39 %), and CF% (56.29 %) at five-on-five. During the latter, they were 30th in goal share (40.79%), 18th in projected goal share (48.89%), and 13th in CF% (51.75 %). If Montreal wants any chance of winning, they will have to get back to their early-season form.
So, how did the two teams fare against each other in the regular season?
Just how you expected.
Toronto finished 18 points ahead of the Canadiens and went 7-2-1 against them, outscoring them 34-25. At 5-on-5, the Leafs had 53% control of expected goals and 54% of high-danger chances. Although, the Habs did marginally edge out the shots and shots attempt matchup over the 10 games (~51/49).
The Leafs also outperformed the Habs in a number of key defensive metrics, including projected Goals Against per 60 and high-danger chances against/60, with only a slight advantage to Montreal in shot attempts against/60, shots against/60, and scoring opportunities against/60. In regards to goaltending, Toronto had a clear advantage with a .912 save percentage, compared to Montreal’s .879 save percentage.
Moneypuck has the Leafs with a 75% chance of winning the first-round matchup over the Canadiens. In addition, they have Toronto as the team with the best chance of winning the cup.
There is no question that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the favourites heading into the series. But with their recent playoff embarrassments, will the Leafs be able to win in this “all or nothing” postseason?
Only time will tell.
The Official AAA Team prediction: Leafs in 5
Works Cited
"NHL Stats." NHL.com, www.nhl.com/stats/skaters.
"NHL Stats." NHL.com, www.nhl.com/stats/teams.
"Team Season Totals." Natural Stat Trick, www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php.