Claus Andersson, Getty, 2021
From a small town in Arizona to hockey’s biggest stage, Auston Matthews has become one of the league's best players and continues to lead the Toronto Maple Leafs to the top spot in their division. But how did the former first-overall pick, and Calder Trophy winner, reach this level of stardom in the NHL?
With his 4-goal NHL debut against the Ottawa Senators, hockey fans far and wide began to take notice of the kid from Scottsdale, Arizona. Fast forward to today, Auston Matthews’ scoring and overall play has given his team a contending shot in the NHL. He is also on pace to win the coveted Rocket Richard award once again, after missing out by only one goal last season. Through his leadership and red-hot scoring, the Toronto Maple Leafs have become the team to beat in the league.
However, this year has been far from easy for the number-one centre, as he battles a wrist injury that has kept him out of four games this season. This has forced Matthews to adapt and find new ways to put the puck in the net. Rick Vaive, who holds the Maple Leafs record for goals in a season, pointed this out by stating, "He's found different ways to score, and that's what the great goal-scorers do.” The following chart depicts the various types of goals Matthews has scored this season:
The story of this season has been Matthews’ league-dominating scoring. Future Hall of Famer Joe Thornton says that “he’s [Matthews] turned a switch on” and “every time he goes and plays a game, he expects to score.” As of May 6th, he is leading the league convincingly with 40 goals this season, 9 more than the second-place player. He is the first player in over 20 years to reach the 40-goal mark in 49 or fewer games and is tied for 2nd-fastest in Leafs history to score 40 goals in a season. Also, he is first in the league when it comes to game-winning goals, with 12, just one short of the franchise record. As well, he has nearly 6 more expected goals, with a currently projected 28, than the next player. Time and time again, Matthews proves that he is becoming the best goal scorer in hockey.
One of the many aspects Auston Matthews brings to the game is consistency—he has not gone more than 5 games without scoring this season. “He expects greatness out of himself,” said teammate Nick Foligno. Matthews has scored 19 goals in his last 19 games and has put the puck in the net at least once in his last five games. There is no doubt that Matthews is in a league of his own. Matthews has scored 22% of his team’s total goals this season, which is more than any other player in the league. Here is his extraordinary goal-scoring pace compared to his teammates:
Matthews is currently scoring at a rate of 0.82 goals per game, which would bring him to 67 goals over an 82-game season. No one has been this efficient since Mario Lemieux was in the league two decades ago. Moreover, in all situations, Matthews leads the league in goals per 60 minutes played with 2.24, ahead of Tyler Toffoli (1.97) and Mikko Rantanen (1.87). Not to mention, his career shooting percentage of 16% is fourth-best in the salary cap era, only behind Steven Stamkos, Leon Draisaitl, and Brad Marchand.
These metrics beg an important question: how many goals would Matthews score in a full 82-game season? We can make some clear predictions based on his career 16.11 percent shooting percentage and 11.46 shots-on-goal per 60 minutes of ice time, as well as his 21:49 time-on-ice per game this season. There would be 36 games left in a regular-season of 46 games completed. Matthews would have 785:20 of ice time in those games, according to our calculations. That's 150 shots on goal, and Matthews gets another 24 goals with a 16.11 percent shooting average. That slows him down to a still-amazing 60 goal pace. In the salary-cap era, only Ovechkin and Stamkos have scored 60 goals in a season.
Finally, Matthews has been remarkable this season, proving that the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the top teams in the league this year through his historic scoring efficiency. In his fifth season in the NHL, hockey fans are witnessing the talent and greatness that Matthews was always destined for. He is indubitably one of the best forwards in the league, but he has yet to achieve much team success. With Matthews scoring at an incredible rate, will he be able to push the Leafs to win the Stanley Cup this year?
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